Enhancing Climate Resilience in Cabo Verde: Strategies, Challenges, and Opportunities

1. Introduction

Ensuring the sustainability of island states amidst high vulnerability and multiple crises presents a significant challenge. Factors, such as high food prices, conflicts, and market distortions, create a cycle of vulnerability and instability, impeding efforts to establish sustainable development pathways worldwide [1].

Climate change exacerbates these challenges for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as Cabo Verde, affecting various aspects of life and development. With its arid climate, limited land resources, and heavy reliance on food imports, Cabo Verde faces unique vulnerabilities intensified by climate variability and extreme weather events.

Agriculture, a vital sector for Cabo Verde’s economy, is undermined by low technology adoption, land degradation, and climate change impacts. Despite efforts in soil and water conservation, issues such as drought, erosion, and soil fertility loss persist. The country’s reliance on food imports and the economic repercussions of global crises highlight the need for a robust agricultural strategy.

Socio-economic factors further complicate the situation as elevated levels of poverty and inequality restrict the ability of vulnerable populations to manage disaster risks effectively. Rapid urbanization and the lack of coordinated disaster risk management strategies exacerbate these challenges.

This article aims to explore how Cabo Verde can enhance its climate change adaptation strategies by integrating local policies and practical approaches to strengthen agricultural and institutional resilience.

By leveraging traditional knowledge, advancing technological innovations, and emphasizing gender equality, Cabo Verde can turn its climate challenges into opportunities for sustainable growth. Building internal capacities and fostering international cooperation are crucial for long-term resilience and effectively navigating climate change complexities.

The research employs a multifaceted approach, including a comprehensive review of existing studies, evaluations of national and local policies, and assessments of community involvement and traditional practices. The climate projection for Cape Verde is based on data compiled from global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, supervised by the World Climate Research Program (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), considering different emission scenarios or shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The data are generated from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

The article is organized into six sections. The first section addresses the key concepts related to climate change and discusses the challenges faced by Small Island Developing States, focusing on Cabo Verde, in terms of mitigation and adaptation. The second section provides an overview of climate geography, situating Cabo Verde in a region highly sensitive to climate change. The third section analyzes the country’s resilience from a multilevel perspective, examining how Cabo Verde is preparing, with various capacities, to face climate risks. The fourth section focuses on the resilience of the agricultural sector as it is the most affected by climate change. The fifth section discusses the challenges and opportunities that climate change presents for the country. Finally, the sixth section interprets the risks and uncertainties related to climate, exploring different future scenarios.

2. Concepts and literature review

Climate change is related to extreme weather events, such as rising global temperatures, storms, tropical cyclones, sea-level rise, and hurricanes. The term “refers to any change in climate over time due to natural variability or resulting from human activity” ([2], p. 6). Human activities in conflict with the environment have caused, directly or indirectly, extreme and intense weather events, increasing the risks of environmental disasters.

Disasters involve human presence in their course, that is, disasters are not natural phenomena, but rather social constructions resulting from the conflicting interaction between society and the environment [3]. A disaster corresponds to a serious disruption in the functioning of a community or society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources [4, 5].

Disaster impacts may include loss of life, injury, disease, and other negative effects on human physical, mental, and social well-being, along with damage to property, destruction of assets, loss of services, social and economic disruption, and environmental degradation [5]. However, it is necessary to differentiate between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (CCA). While DRR is relevant for all types of risks, CCA is more specifically oriented toward climate-related risks. DRR is more concerned with the present, assessing and addressing existing risks, while CCA focuses on the future, dealing with uncertainties and new risks ([6], p. 251).

Climate and disaster resilient development (or Climate and Disaster Resilience) comprise a set of institutional arrangements, processes, and instruments that help identify the risks from disasters, climate extremes, gradual and long-term climatic changes, and their associated impacts and the design of measures to reduce, transfer, and prepare for such risks. Climate and disaster resilient development combine development benefits with reductions in vulnerability over the short and long term using a development planning, multi-sectoral, and multi-stakeholder approach [7].

The impact of a natural disaster varies, depending on the magnitude of the adverse event (threat or danger) and the degree of vulnerability of the affected system. Vulnerability refers to the degree of loss expected for an element or set of elements in a situation of danger, that is, exposed to a specific threat, as a result of physical, social, economic, and environmental factors ([2], p. 6).

Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and a lack of capacity to cope and adapt [8]. The assessment of this capacity can be framed by resilience, which is decisive during the manifestation of a natural or socio-environmental event and post-event reconstruction. The term refers to the capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation [8]. Douglas Sono et al. [9] define climate resilience as the ability of a country or region to resist, absorb, recover, adapt, and develop through continuous learning and adjusting internal economic, social, environmental, and infrastructure systems in the face of climate change-related risks caused by acute shocks or chronic stresses. Resilience encompasses systems, such as food security, infrastructure, and governance [9]. Resilience is not given; it is created and manifests itself in adverse contexts.

This matters as it highlights that capacities must be built for the country to withstand the effects of climate change. Cabo Verde follows the IPCC definition, describing resilience as “the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change” [10].

State capacities are essential for the provision of public goods, including environmental protection [11, 12]. In fact, sensitive issues such as climate change test the very capacity of states, especially in rich countries, to develop policies against the opposition of powerful interest groups, in view of the multiple and multilevel administrative effects of the issue, which must be considered by institutions for the implementation of policies and management of incompatible interests.

The research produced by Sono et al. [9] indicates that countries with effective governance, such as Botswana, Mauritius, and Cabo Verde, demonstrate higher resilience to climate change impacts due to better control over corruption and accountability in implementing climate programs. In contrast, countries, such as Somalia and South Sudan, show lower resilience due to weak governance structures.

When considering these elements, the category of countries that stands out is SIDS. Vulnerability is related to the “ability of SIDS to adjust to the risks arising from climate change” [13]. SIDS face several challenges, including sea-level rise, changing precipitation patterns, and increased intensity of tropical storms and cyclones [14].

The acronym SIDS designates a group of island countries that face similar challenges and objectives regarding sustainable development and environmental issues, especially climate change. In general, these states have a small territorial area, and their special economic zones are larger than their land area.

They are vulnerable to natural weather events, such as storms, cyclones, and hurricanes, and face climate variations, which result in droughts and floods due to changes in the ocean circulation system that alter precipitation patterns. They are dependent on maritime resources and are far from the main markets, which affects their trade competitiveness. They are also subject to external shocks. In short, they need international cooperation to build and strengthen national capacities in relation to climate change [5, 13, 14, 15].

As small island developing states (SIDS) navigate shifts in hurricane frequency, rainfall patterns, and drought conditions—particularly in coastal zones and within the water and agriculture sectors—they encounter significant challenges, with financing emerging as a major constraint [16]. Adaptation strategies in SIDS often encompass structural, physical, and behavioral adjustments. However, there is a notable lack of comprehensive evaluation regarding the effectiveness of these measures [14]. The vulnerabilities of these countries manifest in resource insecurity, significant imports, poor waste management, and an inability to develop economies of scale [17].

Bahers’ [17] proposal is to introduce the concept of “sociometabolic vulnerability,” which provides links between patterns of resource use, systemic risks, and vulnerability. Studying the island of Comoros, they conclude that there is a very low level of resource use and heavy dependence on critical imports that cover large distances, which are vulnerable to price and climate shocks. In this sense, they suggest that informal activities in resource extraction play a significant role in building resilience and the development of communities. Despite these obstacles, many SIDS have strengthened their resilience by leveraging traditional knowledge and pioneering innovative mitigation and adaptation strategies [18]. Unfortunately, research on adaptation to SIDS remains fragmented, with a predominant focus on the Pacific region and individual island nations [14].

Studying Cabo Verde’s climate change allows for understanding its impacts on biodiversity, energy systems, and social structures, as well as developing effective conservation and adaptation strategies for this vulnerable small country. Indeed, climate change poses significant challenges for Cabo Verde, affecting biodiversity, energy systems, and socio-economic factors [19]. Long-term climate trends indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation, signaling ongoing aridification processes [20]. Despite renewable energy potential, Cabo Verde heavily relies on fossil fuels for electricity generation [21]. Addressing climate change requires consideration of gender dynamics as women and men have distinct roles and responsibilities concerning the environment. Promoting gender equality may enhance the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies [22].

3. Cape Verde: Geography of climate change

Cabo Verde is an archipelago located in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania, about 455 km from the west coast of Africa (Figure 1). The archipelago encompasses ten islands (nine inhabited: Santo Antão, São Vicente, São Nicolau, Sal, Boa Vista, Maio, Santiago, Fogo, and Brava; and one uninhabited: Santa Luzia) and eight islets (Branco, Raso, Grande, Luís Carneiro, Cima, and others). Since 1990, the annual temperature in Cabo Verde has increased by around 0.04%, and projections indicate an increase of about 1% for the period 2011–2040 and 3% by the end of the century [10].

The country’s climate is considered mild and tropical, with a strong influence from the cold Canary Current, which affects temperature. Throughout the year, the Azores anticyclones also influence this climate. The islands with an arid climate are Maio, São Vicente, and Brava, while Santo Antão and Santiago have semiarid and arid climates. On the other hand, only Fogo Island has a subhumid climate, as well as arid and semiarid regions [24].

Due to its geographical location and climate system, Cabo Verde is vulnerable to climate change, with consequences seen in terms of climate aridity, frequent droughts, soil degradation, and loss of biodiversity. In this context, Cabo Verde is different from other SIDS. In addition to being a highly vulnerable country, it is located in the Sahel, a region that faces enormous climatic challenges, including conflicts, environmental degradation, food insecurity, water scarcity, drought, desertification, and socio-economic disturbances, such as uncontrolled urbanization, power fluctuations, a weak financial system, unemployment, weak institutions, and mismanagement of public funds [1, 9].

Cabo Verde has a history of severe droughts and famines that devastated the population. However, after gaining political independence in 1975, the country addressed poverty. Independence also provided an opportunity to combat famine and drought on the islands (Table 1).

As a result of successive government policies, Cabo Verde is now recognized as a success story in transforming a harsh environment into a more resilient one that can better withstand extreme drought periods without resulting in widespread famine and starvation. Cabo Verde is a prominent case in the sub-Saharan African region: “The vulnerability and readiness metric suggested that Cabo Verde is the only country in SSA to have low vulnerability and high readiness, while most countries have high vulnerability and low readiness, making them the least resilient countries needing urgent mitigation and adaptation actions” [9].

This does not mean that hunger has been eliminated. Currently, the technical term “food security” is often used to conceal a reality in which the echoes of the poorest families are confirmed by the lack of food and the quality of food necessary to have a decent meal. Drought, as a structuring and shaping factor of Cabo Verdean society, has not yet been addressed efficiently and produces several negative effects on society, especially the departure of young people from their communities. The situation has worsened with climate change, making agricultural production deficits and crop uncertainties more frequent each year (Figure 2).

Drought is, in fact, the type of disaster that has resulted in the most deaths and affected the most people. In this sense, the country’s climate resilience must consider drought as a structuring element. However, the persistent drought highlights the failure to eliminate a set of barriers to socio-economic development.

Climate change is exacerbating drought conditions in Cabo Verde, posing significant challenges to agriculture and food security [1, 26]. The archipelago, characterized by limited resources and vulnerability to natural disasters, experiences regular extreme drought conditions that particularly impact the agricultural sector [1].

To mitigate water scarcity, the government has implemented strategies, such as small-scale irrigation and drip irrigation technology [26]. A pilot project demonstrated that the safe and profitable reuse of treated water through subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) could improve water use efficiency and increase food production [27]. However, challenges remain, including the need for farmer training and addressing installation failures [27].

Studying resilience in the agricultural sector reveals two important characteristics: first, it is the sector most impacted by climate change; second, it corresponds to the sector where the most vulnerable social groups are working, especially women. Therefore, the analysis of this sector allows for the construction of robust strategies to guide decision-makers in more efficient policy formulation and public resource management.

4. Multilevel resilience: Cabo Verde’s analysis

Resilience operates at multiple levels (individual, community, and national). The resilience at the individual level is influenced by community resilience, which, in turn, affects the national level. However, each level retains different characteristics of resilience [9]. At the local level, resilience is related to interventions designed to inform programming. To assess this level of resilience, participatory tools are used to gather information about living conditions.

The Pan-African research network Afrobarometer conducted an interview in 2021 with 1200 adult Cabo Verdeans to capture their perspectives, especially those of young people, on the performance of democracy and governance in the country. The results revealed that 58% of the interviewed population considered Cabo Verde to be a complete democracy or a democracy with minor problems, while 41% thought it was a democracy with major problems. Notably, 46% of the youth segment felt that “we are not a democracy, or we are a democracy with major problems,” with unemployment being one of the main issues identified (71%). Crime and security were also highlighted as problems needing resolution [28].

Regarding climate change, Afrobarometer research conducted by Margaret Eduonoo [29] indicates that Cabo Verdean society is aware of “climate change,” particularly due to drought as a shaping element. However, eight out of ten interviewees believe that the drought has become more severe in the past decade, worsening their quality of life [29].

At the community level, resilience includes factors, such as “the quality of environmental and natural resources management institutions, access to communal resources, quality of protective infrastructure, levels of peace and security, availability of contingency resources or social safety nets, and social participation” ([9], p. 4). Indicators at this level include income level, access to food, and access to basic services, such as health, assets, and social safety nets.

According to the “Leaving No One Behind” assessment conducted by the Cabo Verdean government in 2021 with support from the United Nations, “in 2020, 31.6% of the population lived below the national poverty line (less than US$ 2.77 per day), totaling 175,844 poor individuals. Poverty incidence varies between municipalities, with São Filipe at 65.8%, Santa Cruz at 61.7%, Tarrafal de São Nicolau at 54.5%, and São Lourenço dos Órgãos at 51.6%.” The FAO [30] reports that the prevalence of undernourishment was 12.6% of the population between 2020 and 2022.

Statistics on household living conditions show that 73.8% of households had access to piped water connected to the public distribution network [31]. Most households use piped water (71.3%), while 11.8% rely on autotanks, 7.0% on neighbors’ houses, 6.1% on fountains, and 3.7% use other protected or non-protected sources (boreholes, wells, levadas, springs, etc.). The majority of the rural population (58.1%) uses other sources of water [31].

Women are responsible for transporting water, averaging 21.2 minutes to collect and return it [31]. This division of labor impacts individual and community-level resilience. Climate change exacerbates global water insecurity, disproportionately affecting women [32]. Women face greater constraints in adapting to climate change due to limited access to resources and information [33]. In Nepal, decreasing water availability has increased women’s workload for water collection, leading to longer distances and more time spent [34, 35]. This time poverty affects the well-being of women and their families [34].

The impacts of climate change on water resources are often perceived as less urgent compared to immediate problems, highlighting the need for sensitization and awareness at individual, household, and community levels [35]. Addressing these challenges requires intersectional analyses and the promotion of gender-responsive local adaptation planning in water management [32, 34].

Resilience at the national level builds upon the first two levels and focuses on systems, institutions, and policies that contribute to national resilience. A key variable in this context is the national government’s capacity to respond to climate-related disasters ([9], p. 4).

Resilience is essential for achieving sustainable development in small island developing states (SIDS). However, available financing for this purpose is limited and difficult to access [36]. The degree of vulnerability to climate change is directly linked to state capacities, revealing challenges in accessing basic human rights, education, health services, security, and governance [37, 38]. Therefore, it is crucial to develop capacities to mobilize international resources and partnerships essential for climate finance related to adaptation policies and mitigation measures [13].

To enhance institutional capacity in response to climate change challenges, including the growing need for domestic responses and new climate financing modalities, the new climate governance framework was approved through Resolution No. 38/2024 of 10 May. This framework aims to facilitate the implementation of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the National Adaptation Plan, as well as to optimize the use of available climate finance opportunities. It contributes to the strategic plan for sustainable development by focusing on inclusive processes, institutional coherence, and scientific excellence, enabling the operationalization of the enhanced transparency framework (Resolution No. 38/2024 of 10 May).

The climate governance framework encompasses eight main functions: (a) Decision-making; (b) Coordination; (c) Climate negotiation; (d) Knowledge management and early warning system; (e) Mobilization and management of climate support; (f) Communication and awareness; (g) Implementation; and (h) Transparency, monitoring, and evaluation.

Decision-making and coordination functions are carried out by the following bodies: (a) Interministerial Council for Climate Action (CIAC); (b) National Council for the Environment and Climate Action (CNAAC); (c) National Secretariat for Climate Action (SNAC).

The Interministerial Council for Climate Action is an interministerial decision-making and coordination body on climate policy and sectoral policies impacting national climate objectives, chaired by the Prime Minister. Members include government officials responsible for finance, social inclusion and development, territorial cohesion, foreign affairs and cooperation, education and science, health, tourism and transport, sea, agriculture, climate action and environment, water and energy, and spatial planning.

The National Council for the Environment and Climate Action is an advisory body that collaborates with the government department responsible for environment and climate action. Its fundamental tasks are to issue opinions and ensure the alignment of political and social positions regarding the integrated and sustainable management of the Environment in Cabo Verde, in relation to the national poverty reduction policy and economic growth.

The CNAAC includes representatives from government departments responsible for finance, economy and innovation, territorial cohesion, foreign affairs and cooperation, civil protection, education and science, health, tourism and transport, sea, agriculture and environment, energy, and spatial planning, as well as representatives from municipalities, civil society organizations, the private sector, and academia.

The National Secretariat for Climate Action (SNAC) is an executive body under the direct responsibility of the government member in charge of the climate change sector. It coordinates transparency and implementation, knowledge management and alert systems, climate negotiation, and communication and education.

The National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PANA) has three objectives: (1) To create an enabling environment for integrating adaptation into planning and budgeting; (2) To improve the capacity to manage and share data and access technology and finance for adaptation; (3) To implement adaptation actions for greater resilience of the most vulnerable.

Cabo Verde recognizes its low institutional capacity and fragile mechanisms for coordination, partnership, and dialog on climate change issues [10]. Despite this, the country has relatively high institutional resilience [9] compared to other sub-Saharan African countries.

Among the Cabo Verdean population interviewed, the responsibility for combating climate change is perceived as falling primarily on developed countries (32%), followed by the government (29%) and civil society (23%). Only 34% of respondents believe the government is effectively addressing climate change. Additionally, 63% of respondents feel the government must act immediately to limit climate change, even if it incurs significant costs [29].

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, necessitating effective institutional responses. Public institutions play a crucial role in building agricultural resilience by providing information and technology support to farmers [39]. However, these institutions often face capacity constraints, particularly in terms of financial, physical, and human resources [39]. While formal institutions are vital for developing place-based adaptation strategies, they must also acknowledge cultural factors and collaborate with informal institutions to be more effective [40].

In the context of digital technologies, climate-smart agriculture requires inclusive institutions that provide information, enable innovation, encourage investment, and offer insurance [41]. Although institutional support for adaptive capacity in some regions may appear adequate, assessing the success of these efforts remains challenging due to ongoing declines in agricultural system viability [42]. Improving institutional capacities and fostering collaboration between formal and informal institutions are critical for enhancing agricultural resilience to climate change.

5. Resilience strategies in agriculture

The literature analyzed by Klöck & Nunn [14] identifies a variety of adaptation strategies for small island developing states (SIDS), which can be categorized into key areas:

1. Structural or physical changes: This includes modifications to infrastructure to withstand climate impacts, such as building sea walls, improving drainage systems, and enhancing coastal defenses.

2. Behavioral changes: Communities often adapt by altering their daily practices in response to climate variability. This includes preparing for extreme weather events by preserving food, securing homes, and modifying agricultural practices (e.g., switching to different crops or fish species) to cope with changing environmental conditions [43, 44].

3. Social adaptation: This involves community-level initiatives, such as capacity building, awareness raising, and educational measures, aimed at enhancing resilience to climate impacts. Social networks play a crucial role in sharing knowledge and resources [45].

4. Institutional adaptation: This encompasses the development of laws, regulations, and policies that address a broader range of climate change impacts and promote sustainable practices.

Sono et al. [9] highlight the importance of adaptation for social and economic development, noting that effective adaptation measures are critical but often hindered by limited capacity and resources in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.

Agricultural resilience strategies are essential for addressing the multiple challenges faced by farmers, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where climate change, natural disasters, and economic volatility increase vulnerability [46]. Crop diversification is a cost-effective method to enhance resilience by suppressing pest outbreaks, buffering against climate variability, and improving overall production stability [47].

Several strategies have been proposed to enhance resilience, including income and asset management, improved farm production techniques, government support programs, and technological development [46]. Adaptation measures, such as implementing improved crop varieties and efficient resource use, can address medium-term impacts [48]. The use of ICT-based services and modern technology also helps in coping with climate change [49].

Strengthening farmers’ organizations, implementing gender-sensitive policies, and exploring innovative financing is crucial for enhancing resilience [49]. At the local level, strategies, such as selling livestock, alternative land use, and food storage, are common coping mechanisms [50]. Participation in social networks, access to resources, and diversified farming practices significantly contribute to household resilience against agricultural drought [50].

Cabo Verde’s agriculture faces significant challenges, but farmers have developed various resilience strategies over time. These strategies include modern irrigation techniques for commercial farming and traditional rainfed subsistence systems that rely on social institutions for resource sharing. The government has implemented soil and water conservation measures, which have positively impacted both livelihoods and the environment [51].

To mitigate water scarcity, small-scale irrigation and drip technology have been introduced, enhancing agricultural production in arid areas [26]. Diversification of income sources, including remittances from emigrants, plays a crucial role in the resilience of rural families, particularly those with limited agricultural resources and female-headed households [52]. Despite these efforts, prolonged droughts, erosion, and soil degradation continue to present significant challenges to agrarian development across the archipelago (Figure 3) [26].

Agriculture is a strategic sector for Cabo Verde’s gross domestic product, accounting for 8% of its composition. However, it faces significant challenges, including low technology adoption, limited land availability, soil fertility loss, and the advance of invasive plants, which contribute to a decline in agricultural practice. The land available for agriculture totals approximately 79,000 hectares or 19.6% of the total land area. The distribution of land use is as follows: arable land (12.9%), permanent crops (0.99%), permanent meadows and pastures (6.2%), forest area (22.07%) with an average annual reforestation rate of 4.14%, and other land uses (57.84%) [54].

The agricultural production system primarily relies on subsistence farming, focusing on crops, such as maize, which represents 44.2% of the total area, legumes at 43%, and vegetables at 4% of the total land use area [54]. Cabo Verde remains highly dependent on food imports, accounting for around 80% of its food supply [27], which significantly impacts family purchasing power, especially during international crises, such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to increased prices for essential items. In response, the government intervened to stabilize prices, but the most vulnerable populations still experienced the effects of rising energy and food costs [55].

A priority for the agricultural sector is to reverse and prevent land degradation through soil and water conservation techniques, including mulching, planting cover crops, applying organic amendments, adopting agroforestry systems, utilizing efficient nondepleting biomass for energy, favoring nitrogen-fixing leguminous crops over soil-depleting ones, and implementing anti-erosion practices, such as terraces, contour ridges, and vegetation barriers.

To combat pests, the country is committed to promoting integrated pest and disease management, which includes using natural predators and approved pesticides to reduce seasonal infestations and crop yield losses [10].

In the water sector, a priority action is to improve the infiltration and replenishment of water resources through nature-based solutions (NbSs), such as soil cover for humidity retention, altitude moisture and rain harvesting, slope stabilization, and agroforestry [10].

To adapt agriculture to climate change and new technologies, investment is considered essential in agricultural research, extension, demonstration, and farmer capacity building. This includes modernizing traditional coping strategies for extreme weather and agronomic conditions, such as vegetative rain- and mist-harvesting, seed and water conservation, crop associations, and fruit tree cultivation. Additionally, developing locally appropriate, low-tech, low-energy, low-cost adaptation practices, and climate-adapting local plant and animal genetic resources and varieties—including short-cycle and drought-resistant crops—aims to enhance climate resilience and improve food quantity and nutritional quality [10].

6. Challenges and opportunities

Cabo Verde’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by socio-economic inequalities and widespread poverty. High levels of poverty and inequality further complicate the country’s ability to manage disaster risks effectively. These factors limit access to resources and opportunities for vulnerable populations, making them more susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Rapid and unplanned urbanization also poses additional challenges, leading to increased vulnerability and complicating disaster risk management efforts [1].

The country faces additional risks, including landslides, erosion, deforestation, and forest fires [4].

Climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies in Cabo Verde include various approaches at different levels, from community to national. At the EU level, adaptation strategies often involve improvements in agricultural systems, such as crop diversification or the introduction of climate-resilient crop varieties [6]. However, in Cabo Verde, there is minimal preservation of native seeds, with the matrix of existing seeds being lost due to the lack of transmission of knowledge and traditional practices to younger generations, as well as the abandonment of agricultural fields.

Risk assessments and associated plans aim to identify and mitigate potential risks faced by communities, including measures to safeguard ecosystems affected by climate change. Effective risk management requires continuous learning from inaction and mistakes. For the Cabo Verdean government, this process is ongoing and involves efforts in planning, risk screening, performance evaluation, and collaboration across communities and institutions [10].

Mechanisms to inform communities about imminent risks related to climatic events are in place; however, communities have not fully recognized that pests and irregular rainfall patterns are not solely due to historical rainfall variability and the islands’ geographical situation but also due to climate change. There is a pressing need to invest in environmental education at all levels, from the community to the national level, including educational institutions, to promote understanding and preparedness for climate risks among community members.

The country also lacks sufficient management and conservation practices for water sources to ensure their availability in the face of climate change. Sustainable practices for protecting water sources, where water originates, must be implemented as many people perceive this resource as infinite.

Resilience to gender mainstreaming can enhance the effectiveness of climate change processes through resilient measures; conversely, exclusion threatens progress toward gender equality by silencing half of the global population, denying women their rights, and depriving society of their unique contributions, experiences, and skills crucial for poverty reduction and sustainable development [56].

There is a lack of adequate reporting on the impacts of disasters, particularly droughts and extreme temperatures. This gap hinders the understanding of the real consequences of these events and the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction strategies [1].

During the preparation of the post-disaster needs assessment (PDNA) document for the volcanic eruption in Fogo (2014–2015), proposals for disaster risk reduction were made. These included strengthening the early warning system for floods and droughts at the national level, improving technical capacity and equipment, enhancing responsiveness, and creating a national risk information system. This system is intended to bolster early warning, evaluation, and monitoring, serving as a tool for risk reduction, response, and recovery decisions [4].

The government has implemented soil and water conservation measures, such as terraces, dams, and afforestation, to address land degradation and water scarcity [51]. However, there has been a historical focus on reacting to disasters rather than implementing preventive measures. This reactive approach exacerbates the underlying factors driving disaster risk, particularly those related to climate change [1].

Costa [1] advocates for a comprehensive national framework that integrates disaster risk management with sustainable development goals. This involves consolidating achievements in risk reduction and climate resilience while integrating these efforts into broader poverty reduction strategies. Policymakers should prioritize developing local expertise and resources to reduce dependency on international aid, which can limit the adoption of tailored, sustainable solutions [1].

Engaging local communities in the planning and implementation of disaster risk management (DRM) strategies is vital. This participatory approach ensures that the needs and knowledge of those most affected by disasters are incorporated into decision-making processes, leading to more effective and sustainable outcomes [1].

A lack of coordination and duplication of tasks are highlighted as key issues in several public policy and consultancy documents related to climate change. This underscores the need to create a dedicated body to address climate change, serving as a bridge between responsible institutions. There is a high expectation that the new climate governance framework, by establishing a body for climate action, will address this shortcoming.

As a small island developing state (SIDS), Cabo Verde lacks sufficient financial resources to combat climate change without the support of developed countries and multilateral institutions [13]. This situation necessitates the development of climate diplomacy focused on negotiations and the mobilization of financial resources to implement adaptation plans. Cabo Verde needs to mobilize 2 billion euros over 10 years: 1 billion for adaptation and the remainder for mitigation measures.

Technologically, the country must overcome barriers to the diffusion of low-carbon technologies, involving private sector participation, and improving access to satellites, radars, and statistical and digital systems to generate efficient data for decision-making and action. Building resilience requires accurate climate data and scenarios. Cabo Verde needs to foster international partnerships to develop technologies and tools to produce strategic data.

7. Climate risk and uncertainty analysis

Cape Verde has a relatively small population, which presents challenges in achieving economies of scale in climate adaptation efforts, but it also allows for more targeted and potentially effective interventions with proper policies. A significant portion of the population is of working age, which could be leveraged for labor-intensive adaptation strategies, such as building resilient infrastructure or restoring ecosystems. Therefore, it is important to create socio-economic opportunities for the young population to contribute to the sustainable development of the country.

Population growth indicates increasing pressure on resources, especially in terms of water, food, and energy, all of which are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Cities face the challenge of greater population concentration, leading to increased pressure on these resources, while rural areas, which depend on agriculture, have faced droughts, pushing the population toward cities and emigration.

In the health sector, although the population is living longer, climate change exacerbates health risks, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly. In this sense, events, such as droughts and floods, could disrupt healthcare services, particularly in rural areas.

Although Cape Verde’s economy is relatively small, climate impacts on strategic sectors, including tourism, agriculture, and fisheries, lead to a disproportionate effect on GDP and economic growth projections due to the vulnerabilities of these sectors to climate change.

In the education sector, high internet penetration facilitates awareness, education, and communication regarding climate risks and adaptation strategies. Similarly, a high literacy rate enhances the population’s ability to understand and engage with climate-related information, boosting resilience. Another important factor is the high enrollment rate and gender parity in education, which strengthens adaptive capacity by fostering a well-informed and empowered population capable of engaging in climate action.

Institutions play an important role in tackling climate change. In this sense, the moderate level of trust in the police and members of parliament hinders the enforcement of climate-related regulations and the implementation of necessary policy changes, especially when public concerns about corruption are added. These concerns undermine climate adaptation efforts as funds meant for climate projects might be misallocated or misused (Table 2).

7.1 Climate future

The projection considers different emission scenarios or shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The model offers five paths that countries can follow; therefore, it offers alternatives to plausible futures and considers a series of social, economic, cultural, technological, institutional, and biophysical characteristics, which characterize the interactions between human and natural systems and outline visions for the future, on a specific scale (Figure 4) ([61], p. 555).

Scenario narratives are qualitative descriptions of plausible future world evolutions (applied to countries) based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces, such as technological change [61]. These scenarios present baselines of how things would look in the absence of climate policy, allowing researchers to examine barriers and opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation in each possible future world when combined with mitigation targets [62].

Scenarios 1 and 5 are more optimistic for human development if investments in education and health are made, alongside the proper functioning of institutions. However, while Scenario 5 envisions this development being driven by a fossil fuel-based economy, Scenario 1 assumes it will be fueled by a growing shift toward sustainable practices, ensuring more inclusive development that complies with environmental limits [62].

In contrast, SSP3 and SSP4 are more pessimistic scenarios for economic and social development due to low investment in education and health in poorer countries, which will face rapidly growing populations. Finally, SSP2 represents a “middle-of-the-road” scenario, mirroring the historical development patterns followed throughout the twenty-first century [62].

Considering the scenarios, Cape Verde presents the following data related to temperature and precipitation (Figure 5).

7.1.1 Temperature

SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6 (the most optimistic scenarios with stringent climate policies): Temperatures remain relatively stable, with slight increases over time. The rise is modest, with temperatures peaking around 24.15°C in SSP1–2.6 by 2080. These scenarios suggest effective climate mitigation efforts, leading to controlled warming (Table 3).

Scenarios	Temperature				Precipitation
	Period				Period
	2040	2060	2080	2100	2040	2060	2080	2100
SSP1–1.9	23.86°C	23.94°C	23.81°C	23.88°C	139.06 mm	146.94 mm	141.18 mm	141.60 mm
SSP1–2.6	23.84°C	24.04°C	24.15 °C	24.13°C	126.46 mm	146.56mm	151.60 mm	142.26 mm
SSP2–4.5	24.21 °C	24.59°C	24.68°C	24.90°C	140.77 mm	151.80 mm	126.77 mm	141.11 mm
SSP3–7.0	23.97°C	24.56°C	25.22°C	25.82°C	140.70 mm	156.82 mm	116.26 mm	112.70 mm
SSP5–8.5	24.10 °C	25.08°C	25.77 °C	26.58°C	143.06 mm	138.75 mm	124.56 mm	133.26 mm

Table 3.

Temperature and precipitation values for the selected period.

Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal [25].

SSP2–4.5 (a “middle-of-the-road” scenario): Temperatures rise more significantly, reaching 24.90°C by 2100. This suggests a moderate level of warming, with less effective climate policies than SSP1 scenarios.

SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 (the most pessimistic scenarios with high emissions): These scenarios predict the highest temperature increases. By 2100, SSP3–7.0 reaches 25.82°C, and SSP5–8.5 reaches 26.58°C. The increase in temperature is particularly sharp after 2060, indicating a significant rise in global warming without effective climate policies.

7.1.2 Precipitation

As for the precipitation projections, the SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6 levels fluctuate slightly but remain relatively stable, with values ranging from 126.46 to 151.60 mm. These scenarios indicate that, despite some variability, the impacts on precipitation may be manageable under strong climate policies.

In SSP2–4.5 precipitation shows more variation, peaking at 151.80 mm in 2060, then dropping to 126.77 mm in 2080, and stabilizing again by 2100. This suggests more unpredictable rainfall patterns compared to the SSP1 scenarios.

The SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 show significant declines in precipitation over time in Cabo Verde, especially in SSP3–7.0, where precipitation drops from 156.82 mm in 2060 to just 112.70 mm by 2100. SSP5–8.5 also sees a decline in precipitation, although less dramatic. These trends indicate potential challenges for water resources and agriculture under higher-emission scenarios.

Across all scenarios, temperatures rise, with the most dramatic increases in SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5. These increases are likely to exacerbate heat-related challenges, including stress on ecosystems, human health, and infrastructure. The scenarios indicate increased variability in precipitation, with potential declines in rainfall in later years, especially in high-emission scenarios. This could lead to challenges in water availability and agricultural productivity.

The data underscore the importance of strong climate policies (as seen in SSP1 scenarios) in limiting temperature increases and stabilizing precipitation patterns. In contrast, the higher-emission scenarios (SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) suggest more severe impacts, highlighting the risks of inaction.

7.1.3 Variation by season and region (islands)

Regarding seasonal variation, the hottest season in Cabo Verde generally includes June to August, with temperatures projected to reach as high as 29.79°C (SSP3–7.0) in 2080–2099. While the coolest season covers December to February, temperatures are still projected to rise. Under SSP3–7.0, the temperature rises from 26.61°C in 2020–2039 to 27.29°C by 2080–2099.

The regional variation points to islands, such as Maio and Boa Vista, which are projected to experience the highest temperatures. For example, under SSP3–7.0, Boa Vista’s temperature during JJA increases from 28.93°C (2020–2039) to 30.58°C (2080–2099). Meanwhile, Santo Antão consistently shows the lowest temperatures across the projections but still exhibits significant warming. For instance, its DJF temperature under SSP1–1.9 rises from 25.54°C (2020–2039) to 25.61°C (2080–2099).

These variations imply that increasing temperatures, especially during the summer months, may exacerbate heat stress for both the population and ecosystems, affecting two vital sectors: water resources and agriculture. Higher temperatures lead to increased evaporation rates, potentially exacerbating water scarcity and affecting agricultural productivity, particularly for temperature-sensitive crops.

8. Final remarks

Climate change presents a unique opportunity for Cabo Verde to invest in both economic and climate prosperity. The state must play a decisive role in this ecological transition by formulating policies, creating lines of credit, and financing initiatives that support sustainable domestic development. Leveraging traditional knowledge and practices in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and forestry can help build a national repository of nature-based technologies, enhancing the country’s response to climate impacts.

For resilience to be achieved, climate considerations must permeate all public policy agendas. Ideally, climate change should be integrated into every aspect of national policy, ensuring that it is central to sectoral agendas. This approach would facilitate greater flexibility and quicker policy innovation, aligning with the global emphasis on climate issues and the urgent need for action.

An environmental problem is inherently linked to social and economic inequalities. Thus, reconfiguring the national agenda from a climate change perspective offers a strategic opportunity to address deeper structural and complex issues. This approach ensures that critical sectors, such as agriculture, receive the attention they need.

The concept of resilience requires internal mechanisms capable of restoring systems to normalcy. Vulnerable countries, such as Cabo Verde, must build their own capacities to manage and mitigate damage and losses, rather than relying solely on external support. Strengthening these internal mechanisms is crucial so that, in the face of extreme climatic or natural events, the country can rely on its own resources and capabilities.

To ensure effective functioning, all components of the climate agenda must be interconnected. This analogy underscores the need to identify and address any gaps in the climate strategy and internal capacities. Gender considerations, particularly in the agriculture sector, require greater emphasis. Women should not only be recognized as victims of climate change but also as transformative agents who can contribute to solutions, provided they are granted equal socio-economic opportunities.

The variation in temperature across regions (islands) presents two key insights across the scenarios that must be considered. The islands that will be most affected are the tourist islands: Sal, Maio, and Boa Vista. On the other hand, the temperature indicates that the sector most impacted will be agriculture. These are two strategic sectors for Cabo Verde, which must make efforts to transform tourism into a more sustainable sector and agriculture into one that is resilient to climate change.